Экономика

Назарбаев потратил 18 млрд долларов. Сколько потратит Алиев? (комментарий из Баку)

9 апреля, 8:37 8053

Реальный обменный курс тенге переоценен, Казахстану придется снизить номинальный курс на 30%. К такому мнению пришли аналитики Bank of America (BofA) Merrill Lynch. Причины тому они видят две: девальвация рубля, приведшая к ухудшению условий торговли с Россией, и падение цен на нефть. По оценке банка, к концу года курс казахстанской валюты опустится до 250 тенге за доллар (сейчас –185,65 тенге). Но во избежание политической дестабилизации монетарные власти пойдут на девальвацию только после президентских выборов, которые назначены на 26 апреля.

Отметим, что с января по март прошлого года среднемесячный курс тенге упал на 16,5% и с тех пор держится на одном уровне. Но обеспечивается это за счет многомиллиардных интервенций Нацбанка страны. Так, только за последний год Национальный банк Казахстана потратил 18 млрд. долларов на поддержку курса тенге. Дорогое удовольствие иметь стабильную национальную валюту - не правда ли?

Но Казахстан – не единственная страна на постсоветском пространстве, которая столкнулась с девальвацией национальной валюты. За год по апрель этого года сильнее всего подешевели валюты Украины (82,9%), России (61,9%) и Белоруссии (54,4%). Не остался в стороне и Азербайджан.

В феврале Центробанк страны, не пожелавший потери всех своих валютных резервов, понизил курс маната сразу на 34,6%. С помощью одномоментной девальвации Азербайджан попытался предотвратить спекулятивное давление на манат. В какой-то степени ЦБА решить поставленную задачу удалось, за прошедшие полтора месяца курс маната, который теперь устанавливается самим Центробанком, сохраняется стабильным – колебания идут в сотых долях маната. Лишь в последние дни доллар стал дорожать более заметно, что заставило население вновь заволноваться, многие стали говорить о возможности новой девальвации маната.

В то же время повторить этот маневр ЦБА Нацбанку Казахстана вряд ли удастся. Да и вообще, даже после проведения его Азербайджаном, никто о таком методе девальвации и думать не может. Слишком много как внутренних, так и внешних условий должно совпадать, чтобы решиться на такой шаг. Но обстоятельства вынуждают Астану искать пути выхода из складывающейся ситуации – надо или держать стабильный курс при миллиардных расходах на это, или менять его. Но как?

По мнению экспертов, вторая девальвация может подорвать доверие к политике фиксированного курса, проводимой Нацбанком Казахстана. Но даже этот непопулярный шаг не снизит девальвационные ожидания. А потому дальнейшее давление на валюту может заставить регулятора полностью перейти к политике плавающего курса. Пока же Казахстан решил провести дедолларизацию. После одобрения правительством Нацбанк Казахстана обнародовал план по дедолларизации экономики до конца 2016 года. Основная цель - избавиться от макроэкономической нестабильности, которую создает американская валюта. Теперь приоритет в торговых соглашениях будет отдаваться национальной тенге.

В целом дедолларизации экономики волнует многие страны мира, особенно постсоветские. Надо иметь в виду, что снижение уровня долларизации экономики - долгий процесс, реализация которого возможна при постоянной и систематической работе с набором взаимосвязанных мероприятий и совместных усилий не только правительства и Нацбанка, но и всех хозяйствующих субъектов. Но в любом случае Казахстан к этой сложной работе приступил.

В Азербайджане же, как недавно заявил глава Центробанка Эльман Рустамов, процесс активной долларизации ожидается еще в течение двух месяцев. Тот есть это планируемый ЦБА процесс, в который он не намерен особенно вмешиваться. Мол, население желает получать доллары взамен маната, чему нельзя препятствовать. После этого срока, по словам Рустамова, население успокоится, и процесс дедолларизации пойдет самотеком. Одним словом, из заявления главы ЦБА следует, что конкретных планов по дедолларизации экономики правительство Азербайджана пока не имеет. Что же касается плавающего курса маната, то это возможно только в том случае, если цена на нефть на мировом рынке будет продолжать заметно снижаться.

Сравнение экономик двух стран – Казахстана и Азербайджана – весьма уместно, так как они имеют очень много схожих деталей, интегрирование которых в целом обеспечивало их успешное развитие. Прогнозы на текущий год, хоть и не столь впечатляющие, как в прошлые годы, но на фоне падающих ВВП соседних стран опять-таки положительные. И все-таки их сравнение показывает, что экономика Азербайджана  хоть и немного, но опережает широко разрекламированную экономику Нурсултана Назарбаева.  Это видно и по курсовой политике этих стран, и по времени сопротивления давлению глобального кризиса. Экономика тоже познается в трудную минуту…

Источник: haqqin.az

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